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Iowa 24, Romney 18, Pennsylvania 13, Virginia 9, Wisconsin 7, Us 6, Philadelphia 5, Christie 5, Colorado 5, Ohio 5, Chris Christie 4, Nate 4, Obama 4, Dubuque 4, Rendell 4, Florida 3, Barack Obama 3, Massachusetts 3, Paul Ryan 3, Keith Jackson 3,
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  MSNBC    The Cycle    News/Business. Politics, the economy, media, sports  
   and any other issues that grab people's attention. New.  

    November 3, 2012
    12:00 - 1:00pm PDT  

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you are in democracy plaza and more importantly here on "the cycle." i'm krystal ball. we're work forge the weekend to bring the best election coverage all around. >> i'm s.e. cupp then there were three. time is running out in this presidential race and both campaigns are running around. a presidential marathon and the finish line is the white house. >> i'm toure. "the cycle" is bringing to it you from our loins. >> i'm taking you to "the politico" twilight zone. >> all that plus dr. jay, governor ed rendell and we're crunching the numbers. "the cycle" is going big on this
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saturday, november 3rd, 2012. good special saturday cycle to you. and we are finally here. the ninth inning of the politics as baseball cycle game and to quote my fellow play-by-play man keith jackson, whoa nelly. [ laughter ] anyway the national poll shows a virtual tie with the president having a slight but persistent lead in some of the key battleground states. he has to close the deal. the deal is in the midwest. the candidates, their wives and running mates are covering eight battleground states in total today. we start by taking to you home
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base. mike, the president hits four states. what's his closing argument? >> we got ourselves a barn burner. i'm sitting here home alone. in the words of keith jackson and the words of david axelrod, his closing argument and this is the most memorable quote is coming from his loins. we saw the president come in late tonight. he was back out on the road early this morning. he stopped apartment fema one more time, back to helicopter, back to joint base andrews, back in air force one. he landed in mentor, ohio, that's northern ohio. in terms. closing argument, it's the same, basically the same stump speech but with that last final frenzy, that last bit of energy now that boston these candidates are giving it with just three days
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to go. let's go over the president's schedule. he started in ohio. they are in milwaukee at this point waiting for the president. he's airborne heading in that direction towards wisconsin. iowa and virginia. he end up in virginia and northern virginia tonight. i'll be out there accompanied by the dave matthews band. i'm looking forward to it. tomorrow sunday in new hampshire. florida. ohio. back to ohio and colorado. monday wisconsin, guess where, ohio after that. and then iowa before he finishes up in chicago where he will spend election eve. ohio we should mention nbc news and the marist organization yesterday put out their poll for ohio has the president up six. a whopping margin compared to what we've seen in the past. our poll even has the president up two in florida. so the obama team certainly optimistic and down the stretch they come to keep that sports metaphor going. >> love it. thank you.
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>> as for the challenger mitt romney needs to rally his troops and out gun the president's skilled operation. peter zand certificate on a plane right now with the romney campaign. he called this report for us right before takeoff. >> reporter: two stops down, three more to go today as part of the 72 hour final sprint for mitt romney here in dubuque, iowa there's been a unique opportunity on the campaign plane as we prepare to board for colorado. several of the governor's top advisers are traveling with the campaign today. of course predictions about what will happen on tuesday. there's a sense they are soaking in these final hours of a campaign that many of them have been working on during the course of the last five years. the governor here again offering bipartisan themes. he has tried to draw attention to the president's comments from yesterday in ohio we said not to boo but encouraged voters to vote. saying vote is tfor revenge.
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romney said vote for love of your country. to give you a sense of where this campaign stands as they look forward, the former governor of utah is traveling one of the first times with the campaign today. he's in charge of what's called the romney readiness pre-transition process as they prepare for a potential administration in his words. like building a ship that you hope will set sail. that's the latest from here in dubuque. back to you. >> in about 30 minutes we'll hear from paul ryan, campaigning for mitt romney in battleground virginia my home state. must be slightly awkward for him today given politico's exclusive story saying ryan wasn't romney ace first choice for vp, it was chris christie. so jonathan what do you make of these reports, your out let there. politico saying romney was planning on going with christie and after his trip to israeling
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changed his mind? >> there was a significant intrigue going on even as these candidates are rumbling, stumbling and bumbling around the country in the last week if i can borrow your keith jackson refrain there. >> can you have it, actually. i don't think i'll be doing that again. >> mike allen and jim from politico reported chris christie was the number one choice for mitt romney at one point, he went to london for the olympics, came back and ended up picking paul ryan. there's a lot of bad blood right now between the romney campaign and the chris christie folks and we're seeing that spill out here right in the last couple of days. >> you know, let me inject. i've not plugged into the romney campaign like "the politico" guys. i know about christie. i'm skeptical of the idea that there ever was a moment when romney was going to pick christie for this. it seems cute that it's coming
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out at this moment. jonathan i want to ask you about demographics heading in to this tuesday. seems like there's basically a test that we're going to find out. can obama win re-election with a historically small share of the white vote which basically means will the nonwhite vote share of the electorate rise to new levels that will allow him to survive, like latino support and black support. obama people say hey turn out among blacks and la zwroins will be as high as in 2008 and republicans saying no it won't. do you have a sense who is right in that dispute? >> increasingly what you've seen a department coalition over the years that has been built on african-americans, hispanic, women. we see the huge gap, gender gap between barack obama and mitt romney. and some white men and increationly you see republican party that's the majority, large majority of white men and a gap on the other side. so that is a test, i think we'll
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see. one of the questions about all the polls we've seen are the models they are using correct. is it going to be 75% white electorate? is it 77%? 72%? is the hispanic share of the electorate going to be 7%, 10%, 12%? so i think we'll get those answers to those questions. an interest ago side to that story about chris christie today, there was a romney official quoted anonymously in that story talking about how ohio is the only state where mitt romney's gender gap among men, his advantage among men is not bigger than his gender deficit among women. which seems to be a concession from that official at least that he's losing ohio because obviously all of the voters are either men or women. >> excellent analysis there. >> the voters are either men or women. there you go.
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throughout this campaign the democratic brand has been above water and more popular than the gop brand which has been consistently under water and less popular than the democratic brand. the entire time in this whole campaign. it's not just a party i.d. issue. not just akin or mourdock. do you think the gop brand is drag romney down just enough? >> well i think a few years ago congressman tom davis of virginia had talked about this basically saying the gop brand was dog food. i think it's better than it was then. i do think that -- look i think romney has had a lot of things to overcome in terms above signatureses that he took in the primary when he talked about being severely conservative. not necessarily the republican brand but perhaps the conservative wing of the republican party was hard for him to make that pivot to the middle. we'll find out on tuesday if that was an insurmountable obstacle or he wrangled free
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from. public officials are held in low esteem. all you have to look at is congressional approval ratings to understand americans don't have a lot of fate in their officials. >> the president has been repeating the line don't boo, vote at rallies. he's tacked on another adage and mitt romney has respond. let's take a listen to that. >> at the time the republican congress any senate candidate by the name of mitt romney -- no, no, no. don't boo, vote. vote. voting is the best revenge. >> speaking to an audience he said voting is the best revenge. he told his supporters voting for revenge. vote for revenge. let me tell you what i would like to tell you. vote for love of country. >> aside from giving mitt romney a nice opportunity to sound
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patriotic what do you think obama meant by revenge? romney has not been president. he hasn't inflicted any policies on anyone. revenge for merely running against him? is it revenge for challenging him? what do you think? >> i think there's a real question, there revenge for what? mitt romney hasn't been a president of the united states. he was governor of massachusetts, so maybe if you were talking to a massachusetts audience which the president wasn't there might be something to feel like you have a revenge against. i'm not sure what he meant. seems like an odd way to talk about voting. however, i do think the president has spent the last couple of days trying to fire up his base. i think his message has been much more tailored to that even the talk you're hearing from his aides, david axelrod, his energy is coming from his loins which axelrod said which is the crudest thing i've ever heard anybody say about a sitting president. is this base motivation stuff. romney seems to be trying to
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make that end of campaign sale to the middle. >> let me just say do i not have a hard time seeing what obama meant right there. he was connecting romney to a republican party that for instance presented a jobs bill. refused to cooperate, refused to critic. republican party obstructed just about the entire obama agenda for the last four years. the republican party whose leader in the senate -- >> it's an inspiring message to get revenge on people you've never met. >> it is a response to a republican senate leader who said his first priority was defeating barack obama for re-election. his first priority as a leader in the legislative branch the office defeat barack obama. >> so get revenge for something he said four years ago. >> spent four years obstructing the agenda. i know what he said. >> dr. jay thanks for hanging with us on saturday. up next our weekend cycle.
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both candidates taking the race to iowa and that's our state of the day as "the cycle" rolls on live from democracy plaza.
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>> you can look at my record. you can see i can bring change. i helped bring it. the difference between us he made promises he couldn't keep. i am making promises i have kept and i will keep them for the american people.
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>> duking it out in dubuque. at mitt romney in dubuque, iowa where the president will campaign tonight. here at the cycle we've been examining the most important states for this year's presidential election. today we take a hard look at the state that starts the race and might end it, iowa. it's known foreclose elections, carries six electoral votes and of all the swing states it has the best economy by far. according to real clear politics poll average president obama is currently leading by two points. with political ads running across the state 24/7 how will iowa shake out on tuesday? guys i think iowa is a weird state. we can all agree. >> no, no. i have friends in iowa. >> i liken to it the new hampshire of the midwest. there's a real strong independent streak there and it's hard to pin down their political leanings. i know you'll get into that in a little bit. but i just wanted to bring up a
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blog post that jeffrey anderson had at the weekly standard. he was talking about turnout. in 2008 democrats had a one. -poi -- one-point advantage. in the point of this post was i have to think that will tighten. if there's good news for iowa for mitt romney, it's that turnout probably won't be as great for democrats as it was in 2008. and i think that, you know, the tiny margin in '08 that 1% at one point has republicans thinking that iowa is gettable and it's why you've seen them sort of run into the state with an increased ground game. >> i was in iowa last year and i like to play this game where i say why should iowa be first in the nation. and they get very upset.
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they take their role in politics very seriously and they really try to know everything about the candidates. this is a very serious political state. i want has a progressive tradition. eve gone for a democrat four of the last five times only for bush in '04. we thent for gore, clinton twice and this is a state not feeling the pain. 5% unemployment. they didn't have the foreclosure problem. they are a prosperous state. the recession skips over iowa. they are liking obama. >> whatever happens, whoever wins and we did our election maps and i have iowa going to obama, iowa is a state where romney will have his best gains in the country where john mccain didn't in 2008. this was a 10 or 11 point race in 2008. now two, three, four would be a lot for obama. you can go back to 2004, bush won a squeaker. in 2000 gore won it by 4,000. iowa is two states. we say it's a progressive
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tradition. there's a ton of social conservative, religious social conservatives in western iowa and there's also a lot of these white working class middle class voters as a demo brafic have turned hard on obama across the country. iowa, they are particularly pronounced in that state. a lot more for romney to work with. your point is key, i mentioned this last week on the show. in the 1980s iowa was an exception. the national economy was strong. farm economy collapsed in iowa and iowa took it out on george bush sr. we might see the opposite where the economy is weak in a lot of places but stronger in iowa. >> iowa voted for revenge. interesting. >> great reason to vote. >> to your point that's why the social consciences that's why mike huckabee and rick santorum do well in iowa. i don't think obama or romney are well suited to iowa. did i just say ohio? i meant iowa. >> iowa. >> anyway, i don't think eat of
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those candidates are particularly well suited because there's a strong populace strain in iowa politics. i ultimately do have it going blue if you look at the polls. romney has never led in iowa, interestingly even though as you pointsed out the democrats held a slight advantage in voting in registration numbers in 2008. they are turning out the same number in terms of early votes. they have a 60,000 vote advantage this year at this time versus in 2008 which is the same. so i think ultimately it is going to go to president obama. >> i have it going red but, again, i think we put up that chart of presidential voting history since 1972 it's picked republican president five times, a democrat president five times. guess this is like the rubber match. just quickly want to note that yesterday i laid down some smack is what i did.
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>> a group smack down. >> i spoke for the group. yes. when i made some intimidating remarks. take a look. with all due respect mr. mayor, what the hell your thinking? heartbroken residents of the five boroughs do not want to watch out of towners jog through their neighborhood as they dig out of wreckage. so do the right thing postpone this race mayor bloomberg. so you're welcome obviously. it was reported that they cancelled the marathon due to noise. >> my favorite part -- >> i'm noisy. >> was the e-mail from s.e. who said i'm drunk with power. >> i'm drunk with power. >> so, you were noise that made the mayor said enough. >> i'm going to take this opportunity i'm calling on the sun to set in the west today.
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listen to me sun and do it. we'll have a follow up on monday. >> ridiculous. >> up next the one, the only ed rendell he'll join us from his home state battleground pennsylvania. can romney still take it or said lock for obama. cycle on with us live from democracy plaza. ♪
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♪ want to take you live to richmond, virginia where paul ryan is work forge the weekend, schedule ed to speak any minute now. we'll be watching it four. this is a very special episode of "the cycle" like the very special "facts of life" episode.
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we have gone on a trip to democracy plaza. can you taste the freedom? this is a very special cycle. in the guest spot i call him biggy small, former pennsylvania governor ed rendell. governor, hope the eagles aren't getting you down. >>. >> it's little depressing. guys, listening to you guys it's clear this election has lasted at least a week too long. [ laughter ] >> fair point. >> all right. >> okay. all right. we'll take that with the love aassume that it's meant with. >> it is. you guys have been heroic but you shot your bulb. it's done. >> all right. thank you, sir. look peninsula is a diverse state, it's urban and rural, black and white. it seems like a little american in a lot of ways. when i look at this election we see obama is about to get crushed among white voters but about to dominant with black and
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brown voters which may carry him over the goal line. are we at a place in america where white america can get together pick a candidate and still not get what they want? >> i think we've reached that place. to say that it's white america all for romney and against obama is wrong. president obama will win pennsylvania if he toes and i think he will is in the philadelphia suburbs which are predominantly 85%, 90% white. that's where you have progressive democrats in the suburbs become being increasingly democrat. you got the last of the moderate republicans and a lot of independents as well. and they are voters who are intelligent, they care about the environment, they care about social justice, they care about causes like women's right to choose, et cetera. and those white voters will stay with the president in significant numbers and that's what will bring him to victory in pennsylvania. pennsylvania is a state with about a 10% to 12%
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african-american population and about a 6% to 8% latino population. so white voters still dominate pennsylvania and you got to get your share. the president does. the president in '08 when he carried this state by 11 points he lost 11 out of the 12 southwestern pennsylvania traditionally democratic counties which are all essentially blue collar, white working class counties where they are pretty much pro gun and fairly conservative democrats. but he still won the state by 11 points. >> governor, i've seen a lot of smart people say and write obama can't lead romney can work across the aisle that's why we should go for romney. which of course builds, plays in to the strategy of obstruction. republicans refuse to work with obama, making him seem like he can't lead and romney gets to come in and says i'll break the gridlock which ultimately is a strategy which rewards obstruction and says there's no pain for it, this is horrific
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behavior it's okay we'll reward it. do you understand why smart people would look at what's actually going on in washington and add it up that way and not want to punish the republicans for obstruction? >> no. i really can't. when you think about it, the president gets criticized for not reaching across the aisle. what did mitch mcconnell say early on in the first year of president obama's presidency. our number one goal is to make sure barack obama is he's a one term president. he's been faced with resistance by republicans. contrast that to george w. bush. his major initiatives, war in iraq, medicare part d and no child left behind had substantial democratic support. in no child left behind, the leading liberal in the senate ted kennedy joining with president bush to push no child left behind.
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contrast that to the way the republicans treated barack obama and you see the total hypocrisy of that claim. >> governor, philadelphia aside obama's biggest drop off has been among middle to upper class suburban women. why do you think that is? you know the state. >> because the economy is not doing well. pennsylvania's economy has taken a nose dive since i left. when i left -- well truth is truth. when i left we were 7.4% unemployment, almost two points below the national average. we're now above the national average by a third of a point. so, it's significant. but the economy has not done well and suburban women are conscious of the economy. you'll know right away in pennsylvania, you don't have to look far to see whether this will be a close race. just look at the turnout in philadelphia. if the turnout approaches '08
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levels it's katie bar the door, philadelphia will give obama so many votes there's no way the rest of the state can come pen st. two the philadelphia suburbs. unless mitt romney is running close to even in a couple of those four suburban or five suburban counties, he has no chance to win the state. i'm not saying it won't happen but i think it's unlikely. >> me too. >> what i thought the romney camp -- i thought the romney campaign made a big mistake after his first debate if he went to pennsylvania spent $4 million a week, came to the state, he and ryan came to the state five or six time he might have put the state in play. you can't do it in seven days. it's just not possible. >> governor, that's what i can't figure out because for the longest time we've been talking about this narrow electoral path that romney has. he has to win either ohio or wisconsin and we've seen in the last week they are not making the kind of headway there they need. there's this late push in
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pennsylvania. we've seen polling in the last couple of weeks showing michigan a state obama won by 16 points now down to single digit. minnesota, it could be in play. i'm astounded the romney campaign with all the money hit or more possible to the point the money the super p.a.c.s had never tried to lay the ground work. >> it is astounding considering the money they had and considering they had the brightest political strategist in the country in karl rove. where was karl rove in those states after that first debate. he should have jumped on these states anticipate as soon as they saw momentum pennsylvania went from 9 to 6 pretty fast. there was momentum. there was momentum in michigan. i wouldn't have waited until the last week especially because it's not a question resource. they have the money. you show see what's going on in pennsylvania now. it's ludicrous. we have back-to-back ads against president obama from the various
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super p.a.c.s. that's wasted because you compressled knit to one week. by the way in a week where president obama probably had his best independent week in the end news, the real news of the campaign. you know, they are trashing president obama while he's looking like what is it 78-8 people think he's done a good job on hurricane sandy. it's tough with that type of week it's just -- it gets enough. now i think the only hope for the romney folks is let's say this ad blitz stimulates their base and they come out in pennsylvania in numbers that they were not likely to come out in before. and the obama base still remains over confident or lethargic, et cetera. i don't think that's going to happen. i think ofa still has an excellent ground operation. i've been going around to ofa staging places the last couple of days. and the ofa people are fired up. there hasn't been that much activity visible as of yet but
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in the last four days they can do a lot. they got a very, very good organization. so i think the odds are very difficult for romney here. >> governor, you just mentioned hurricane sandy. i want you to quickly weigh in on president obama and chris christie bromance. robert mourdock said christie needs to redeclare for romney or take the blame for the next four years. do they need to reto their vow? >> if i were the romney campaign and believe me i'm not -- my advice is obviously from a tainted source but if i were, i would give chris to come in to pennsylvania and appear with governor romney. i think that, number one, would be good for chris christie's future in the republican party and two at least meet some of the appearance of him being with president obama. i think rupert mourdock had a
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moment of sanity. a brief moment of sanity. >> all right. governor ed rendell thank you very much. >> thanks guys. hang in there. >> thank you. from biggy small to nate dog. right ahead nate the number cruncher is take a break from his saturday cartoons and talks about what he calls the popular vote nightmare. i'm done!
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with the aftermath of sandy possibly affecting voter turnout in the traditionally blue northeast another storm forecast in the area election forecasters fear we may have a popular vote electoral college split. you've heard that possibility
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first floated by someone who is wearing gray sweaters all week on this show a while back. nate cohen is taking it a step further. he laid out a detailed scenario, vote turnout nightmare. let me ask you first about the popular vote issue. what we've talked about on this show before is the idea that obama is sort of underperforming in democratic states, he's going win anyway, he's had more of a falloff in blue states than elsewhere and that could drag down his national popular vote total. do you think there's potential then when you add in the hurricane and the logistical issues that come out of that that further depresses turnout in new jersey or something and affects the national popular vote? >> i do think the blue states would be responsible for obama loss in the popular vote if he was winning the electoral
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college. there are recent polls out of massachusetts, connecticut and california in the last 24 hours that shows obama losing nine to ten points even more than that in connecticut off of his 2008 performance and that would represent a pretty substantial decline that's greater than that elsewhere in the country. in terms of the hurricane it's hard to say. i'm not sure about what areas are affected. the atlantic coast of new jersey is not in a democratic area. staten island will vote for romney. suffolk county, new york is divided. i don't know how much turnout will fall on the city of new york. if i want does it would make a difference. >> democrats are contesting on the shore, there's talk maybe the republican areas hardest hit there. i want to ask you another thing about the battleground. i took a look this morning and it seems there's basically a fire wall here that obama has on tuesday that involves three states, ohio, wisconsin, and nevada. if romney won basically everything else that's up for grabs in not these three states he would be short of 270.
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he would have 267. if you look at the clear averages in these three states these are persistent leads. ohio, wisconsin, nevada. are we at a point where the only hope for romney there's something wrong in the method oflg these state polls? >> i think we're about at that point opinion he has a couple of days left for him to make a come back. there isn't a single poll, a single nonpartisan poll in ohio, wisconsin or nevada that shows romney in the lead. and, yes, you know the polls have been wrong before and it's conceivable that things can be off. you can ask about sharon engel if polls are right. the overwhelming majority of the time when someone holds a lead of this magnitude, this consistently, they wine up winning. and, you know, there are reasons to think the polls could be off. it's tough to talk to people on cell phones. assumptions about turn out are more important than ever.
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but, yeah, you're right i think the polls have to be wrong at this state level. >> polls ask who are you going to vote for but there's data around polls who do you think will win and that's extraordinarily predictive. why is that question so predictive when we make people into mini anthropologists. >> it's what people are hearing. people are hearing stuff about romney. the average person, you know, has an idea that the president is still pretty popular. that makes them think that, you know, most voters or swing voters will tilt a little more in obama's direction. that has an effect on swing voters. not in a direct sense that they think obama will win but the balance of information that people are hearing out there is the same information that will sway swing voters. it makes sense it would be a pretty decent relationship
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between the actual results and what people think. >> nate, i got to be honest. i care little for polls. let's gossip instead. i'm sure you've seen some of the blow back against the other nate for some of his predictions. i want to put up a tweet who said the degree to which people put their faith in nate silver goes against everything nate silver stands for. she's a fan. you guys have taken on something of a mythic quality like something out of oz or lord of the rings. when did you number crunchers become like rock stars? >> well, i don't think there's anything mythical or magical about it. the poll says obama will win in the swing states. nate silver says obama is ahead in the swing states and win the electoral college. the polls are usually right. the model acknowledges the polls could be wrong. that chance is at 15% based on
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the same sort of analysis i gave earlier that look there are a few examples when the polls are off this much. ken buck, sharon engel, hilary and obama in new hampshire but more the exception than rule therefore obama is the favorite. if obama wins i don't think that makes, you know, nate silver or myself or anyone else who stairs at the polls and says obama is favored, you know, being incredibly insightful. polls are right and pollsters get the credit. if obama loses i don't think nate silver should be panned out. i don't think either. >> never pan you. >> you could use your wizardry to answer this question. isn't it quite possible at this point in terms of electoral college when you're looking at the key battleground states the president has a lead in most them. isn't it possible the president will win the electoral college in a landslide.
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>> i don't think it would constitute a landslide. but it's easy to see how grab gets to 303 or 332. by bush-gore standards it's a landslide. pretty middle of the road. >> in speaking of that you have reviewed all of our map. we have made your own electoral college picks and you chose a favorite using your wizardry. >> yeah. i thought that your map actually was the best. >> hey. >> sorry guys. >> landslide prediction. >> don't necessarily think this is the best map because i agree wildfirery state here. i don't think that obama is favored in florida and colorado and virginia strike me as coin flips. but there's a consistency that's, you know, evident in your map. obama is probably likely to win both colorado and virginia if he wins either of them and if obama wins florida he's probably going
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to win say virginia and that i think complicates some of the other maps and steve's instance i think he showed obama losing colorado but winning virginia and i think that's possible but unlikely. i think s.e. was right focus on new hampshire and iowa as potential areas of weakness for obama but gosh the polls are getting out of hand for romney in wisconsin. he's down by like seven or eight points in wisconsin. >> i'm counting on cheese heads across the state to pull it out for romney those. >> nate, i've been sticking up for your but after that if you guys are wrong next week you are discredited. thanks for joining us nate cohn. up next politico twi light zone. exploring alternate, election day realities. one of them is pretty scary. keep it here on msnbc, with nonstop politics from here to election day.
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in today's back spin, we enter into the political twilight zone. what would washington look like with mitt romney in the white house? how about democrats in full control of congress? >> no. >> or crazier still, donald trump winning the write-in vote. so i was thinking about what would happen if romney were to win and either republicans take control of the senate or democrats take control of the senate. and harry reid made some news this week with a quote. he was talking about romney's argument that he would reach out to democrats and they would be able to work together. he said mitt romney's fantasy
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that senate democrats will work with him to pass his severely conservative agenda is laughable. >> ouch. >> i tend to agree with harry reid, not only because romney said on day one the first thing he is going to do is repeal obama care, which democrats care very deeply about and will fight the hold on to, but if romney wins, it's going to be this vindication of this strategy of obstructionism. i think democrats may not go to the extent of holding the country hostage over raising the debt ceiling, but i think they will try to employee some of the same tactics. >> i think the underreported story of october was for the period when the odds of mitt romney winning increased, simultaneously the odds of the republicans winning back the senate decreased. the chances are very good the democrats will hold on to the senate. if romney somehow wins this thing next week and the republicans were to win the house, they needed the slimmest majority and they can pass through reconciliation. if the democrats win, it's going
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to be tougher to advance. the flip side is if obama is elect and the republicans still have control of the house, i think the big gain there for democrats is they consolidate what they achieved in the last four years, and obama will then have leverage in dealing with this fiscal cliff. i don't like that term, but the fiscal cliff, and he will be able to make a stand and finally get rid of the bush rates, at least for the high earners. that will be a big difference. >> something has to happen. >> if obstruction is rewarded, he will be emotionally hurt. it will bother me deeply. i wouldn't blame harry reid for obstructing in response. it's not right. i shouldn't feel that way. he shouldn't do that. i don't like the republicans did it. so we shouldn't do it back. but i wouldn't blame him. >> revenge! >> absolutely. i don't think the democrats can do it. i don't think that we are idealogically unified in that way. and we talk about that republicans like stand on principle, and democratic voters like stand on compromise. go for compromise. that's not what the democrats are about. i don't know if they are going to be able to do that. >> well, i just had a to-do
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list. whoever is elected, we'll start with obama, i have a to do list. if we can put it up on the screen. should it look pretty familiar to his supporters, because it's all of the things that he promised to do and hasn't, from cutting the deficit, lowering the debt, reducing dependency on foreign oil, address home foreclosures, reclose income inequality, reduce poverty, get tough in iran, reform social security and medicare. these are things that i think are important to a wide swath of americans. i would add to that list answer questions on benghazi. but i'll put up my to-do list for romney. it's the same -- it's the same list. these are the things that i want to get done that haven't been addressed i think as full throatedly as they should have been over the past four years. and now they're even more dire. so i hope both guys are watching, and these are the things that they focus on. >> can i see your gary johnson to-do list? >> shoot! >> sorry, gary johnson. i totally shortchanged him there.
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>> and i do think -- i think steve made a really important point here that if the president is reelected, one of the questions has been the house is likely to stay republican. the senate is likely to stay democratic. people are justifiably frustrated with how slow progress has been. as tory said, i agree with that assessment because republicans said on day one we are not going to work with this president. what would be different in a second term. and i think your point that things have to happen because of the way legislatively things are coming down, the bush tax cuts expiring. >> right. >> sequestration, something has to happen with that. >> that's the only thing. my issue is this. beyond that, for obama to be able to get something done with the republican congress next term, this election needed to deliver a message to republicans. they need to cooperate. and i think if they lose, the only conclusion they're going to draw is hurricane sandy cost it for us. >> all right that wraps it up for "the cycle" from democracy plaza. we will see you right back on monday. tamron hall is straight ahead with a second weekend edition of "newsnation."
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